The Coming Storm: Why Q1 2026 Will Trigger a Dash for Capital and Consulting Services in UK Clean Energy

The British clean energy sector is about to experience a phenomenon not seen since the original dash for gas in the 1990s. As the National Energy System Operator (NESO) prepares to release its final Gate 2 offers by the end of Q1 2026, hundreds of projects—some languishing in limbo for over 18 months—will suddenly transition from purgatory to actionable development status. What follows will be nothing short of a capital market stampede, accompanied by an acute shortage of the experienced consulting services needed to shepherd these projects to financial close.

For those of us who work at the interface between utility-scale asset development, commodity agreements, and institutional infrastructure capital, the implications are profound—and the time to prepare is now.

The 18-Month Hiatus: Understanding the Backlog

The scale of what has been held back is extraordinary. When NESO paused accepting new grid connection applications on 29 January 2025, the connection queue contained approximately 739 GW of capacity—more than six times the UK's peak electricity demand and far exceeding the 200-225 GW of clean generation capacity required by 2030. The previous first-come, first-served system had become hopelessly congested, with some projects facing wait times of up to 15 years.​

The Gate 2 to Whole Queue (G2TWQ) process, which closed its evidence submission window on 26 August 2025, represented a once-in-a-lifetime reordering of the entire electricity transmission connections queue. Over 3,000 transmission-connected projects were required to submit evidence demonstrating their maturity, deliverability, and strategic alignment with Clean Power 2030 objectives.​

The result has been paralysis. Throughout 2025, viable projects with planning consent, secured land rights, and willing investors have been unable to progress because they lacked certainty on connection timing. As Pinsent Masons observed, "the well-publicised delays to the Gate 2 process have shifted M&A transactions to the later part of 2025 and those delays are set to have a real impact on the deliverability of certain protected projects—with developers struggling to raise capital in time to progress their developments and make material financial commitments".​

This enforced waiting period has created an enormous backlog of projects that are ready to move—but have been frozen in place by regulatory uncertainty.

The Q1 2026 Inflection Point

According to NESO's revised timeline published on 1 October 2025, Gate 1 offers for all qualifying projects will be issued by the end of Q1 2026. Gate 2 offers for customers connecting up to 2030 will follow by the end of Q2 2026, with offers for post-2030 connections arriving by Q3 2026. The submission window for new applications is also expected to open in Q1 2026.​

NESO and the Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) will begin communicating directly with successful applicants from December 2025, prioritising those protected projects scheduled to connect in 2026 and 2027. This staggered release will create a cascading wave of projects suddenly emerging from the queue with confirmed connection dates, revised commercial terms, and—critically—the certainty that lenders and investors require.​

The potential impact is transformative. Ofgem estimates that connections reform could unlock £40 billion in annual economic growth and eliminate unnecessary grid reinforcements worth £5 billion in future billpayer charges. For individual projects, the transition from uncertain queue position to confirmed Gate 2 offer will fundamentally alter their risk profile—and their financing prospects.​

The Dash for Capital: Convergent Demand in a Constrained Market

When hundreds of projects simultaneously receive the green light to proceed, they will all require the same thing: capital. This convergent demand will create unprecedented competition for the finite pool of infrastructure investment available in the UK market.

The numbers are daunting. The Government's Clean Power 2030 Action Plan requires approximately £50 billion of investment annually through to 2030. The National Energy System Operator has advised that achieving clean power targets necessitates maintaining "a stable and attractive investment environment" capable of securing over £40 billion of investment annually. Yet even before the queue release, the market was straining to deploy capital at this scale.​

Battery energy storage projects illustrate the challenge. In 2025 to date, approximately 1,405 MW of new battery storage capacity has been commissioned, already surpassing the 2024 total of 1,249 MW. Between April and June 2025 alone, over 100 planning applications were submitted representing 8.4 GW of storage capacity—more than double the same quarter in 2024. The UK Government estimates that 23-27 GW of storage will be required by 2030, up from just 6 GW today.​

When Gate 2 offers begin flowing in Q1 2026, this already-stretched market will face a surge of shovel-ready projects competing for the same institutional capital, the same debt facilities, and the same power purchase agreements. Projects that secured queue positions years ago—but were forced to wait—will suddenly discover that their competitive advantage lies not in timing, but in their ability to move fastest through the development cycle.

The winners will be those who have used the 18-month hiatus productively: completing due diligence, securing planning variations, finalising land agreements, and pre-negotiating financing terms subject only to connection confirmation. The losers will be those who assumed the queue release would bring orderly, sequential access to capital markets.

The Consulting Bottleneck: When Everyone Needs Help Simultaneously

Perhaps the most severe constraint will be access to experienced consulting services. The clean energy sector is already grappling with what the Engineering Construction Industry Training Board describes as an "inadequate" provision of green skills. Eighty-one percent of employers in the renewables sector are already struggling to recruit, and the workforce is expected to grow by 18% over the next three years.​

The Government's Clean Energy Jobs Plan projects that employment in clean energy will double from 440,000 to 860,000 jobs by the end of the decade. An estimated 200,000 additional workers will be needed by 2030 to meet the demands of the green economy. Yet around 20% of the existing workforce is expected to retire by 2030, leaving only 216,000 transferable workers to help address the shortfall.​

For consulting services specifically—the technical advisers, financial modellers, commercial negotiators, and development managers essential to reaching financial close—the bottleneck will be acute. These are not roles that can be quickly filled by graduate recruitment or retraining programmes. They require years of transactional experience, sector-specific knowledge, and established relationships with lenders, offtakers, and regulators.

When several hundred projects simultaneously require:

• Technical due diligence for lender satisfaction

• Financial modelling for investment committee approval

• Commercial structuring for power purchase agreements

• Grid connection negotiation for revised terms

• Planning variation support for design changes accumulated during the hiatus

• Development management for the sprint to construction commencement

The demand will far exceed supply. Developers who have not already secured relationships with experienced advisory teams will find themselves in bidding wars for scarce consulting capacity—or facing delays that see competitors reach financial close first.

The M&A Dimension: A Buyer's Market Emerges

The connections reform is also reshaping the renewable energy M&A landscape. As Pinsent Masons noted, "the number of projects in the market perceived as 'de-risked' once a clear notification or Gate 2 offer is received will likely result in more projects than there are investors in the market, and we anticipate a clear shift into buyer-led processes over the next 12 months".​

This represents a fundamental market transition. During the hiatus, development rights with uncertain connection dates traded at substantial discounts to intrinsic value. Buyers demanded contingent payments and consideration adjustments to protect against queue risk. Sellers accepted these terms because the alternative—holding assets through an indeterminate waiting period—consumed capital and management bandwidth without generating returns.​

Post-release, the calculus changes. Projects with confirmed Gate 2 offers will command premium valuations. Those without will face existential questions about their place in the reformed queue—and their prospects for ever reaching financial close. The market will bifurcate sharply between investable assets and stranded development positions.

For developers who have navigated the hiatus successfully, the Q1 2026 release creates a window to crystallise value. But realising that value requires the ability to execute transactions quickly, professionally, and at scale. Again, the constraint becomes access to experienced advisory services—M&A advisers, legal counsel, tax specialists—who understand both the technical complexities of the reformed connection regime and the commercial expectations of infrastructure investors.

The Supply Chain Crunch: Competition Beyond Capital

The dash for capital will be accompanied by a parallel dash for supply chain capacity. The UK already faces "significant backlogs and/or price increases for certain components, often driven by international demand and competition". Equipment lead times for transformers, switchgear, and battery systems have extended substantially since 2022.​

When multiple projects simultaneously attempt to move from financial close to construction commencement, they will compete for the same equipment, the same installation contractors, and the same grid outages for connection works. Projects that have not already secured equipment reservations or installation slots will face delays that push delivery dates beyond connection milestones—triggering penalties or, in extreme cases, termination of connection agreements.

The Government has recognised this challenge. The £300 million Great British Energy commitment for offshore wind supply chains aims to "boost domestic jobs, mobilise additional private investment, and secure manufacturing facilities for critical clean energy supply chains". But supply chain capacity cannot be created overnight, and the Q1 2026 release will test every link in the development chain.​

Strategic Implications: Preparing for the Storm

For CM Energy Insight's clients—developers, investors, and corporate energy buyers navigating this landscape—several strategic imperatives emerge.

First, secure advisory relationships now. The time to engage experienced development managers, technical advisers, and financial modellers is before the queue release, not after. Firms that wait until Q1 2026 to begin assembling their project teams will find themselves at the back of a very long queue for consulting capacity.

Second, complete preparatory workstreams during the hiatus. Projects that reach the queue release with updated financial models, refreshed planning consents, and pre-negotiated financing terms will move to financial close far faster than those requiring months of additional work. The 18-month delay should have been used to de-risk every aspect of project delivery that does not depend on connection certainty.

Third, understand the reformed commercial framework. The Gate 2 offers will include revised connection terms that may differ significantly from original agreements. Understanding the implications—for project economics, for financing structures, for offtake arrangements—requires technical and commercial expertise that many development teams lack in-house.

Fourth, position for supply chain access. Equipment reservations, installation contractor frameworks, and grid outage bookings should be secured as early as possible. The constraint on project delivery will increasingly be physical rather than financial—and first movers will enjoy substantial advantages.

Fifth, consider portfolio strategy. Developers holding multiple projects should assess which to prioritise for immediate development and which might be better realised through sale. In a buyer's market, timing and presentation will determine value. Projects brought to market with comprehensive data rooms, clear development pathways, and secured advisory support will command premiums; those offered as-is will attract distressed pricing.

Conclusion: A Defining Moment for the Sector

The Q1 2026 connection queue release will be a defining moment for the UK clean energy sector. Projects that have waited years for certainty will finally receive it. Capital that has been sitting on the sidelines will finally deploy. Supply chains that have been operating below capacity will finally face full order books.

But the transition will not be orderly. When hundreds of projects simultaneously become investable, the market mechanisms designed to allocate capital, services, and supply chain capacity will be severely tested. Winners will be determined not by queue position, but by preparation, relationships, and execution capability.

At CM Energy Insight, we have spent the hiatus period preparing for exactly this moment. Our understanding of how to move from need statement to physical solution, from commodity agreement to financial model, from development capital to financial investment decision—this is what the market will require at unprecedented scale.

The storm is coming. The question is not whether you will be affected, but whether you will be ready.

CM Energy Insight provides management consultancy, interim and project management, and NED support to renewable energy investment businesses throughout their lifecycle. For advisory services on navigating the post-queue release environment, contact our team.